Community Risk Profile (CRP)

Summary

Overall, the risks and trends identified in previous versions of the Community Risk Profile (CRP), particularly 2023 (used in the Community Risk Management Plan consultation), have remained the same. We have included some additional information based on feedback from Nottingham Trent University (NTU).

The area demonstrating the largest amount of change is emerging and alternate technology. New information available in this year's CRP shows new technologies will have an impact on the risk in Surrey. There are new ways of generating energy in the home and on an industrial scale. There is also mounting evidence that alternately powered vehicles are challenging to manage in event of a road traffic collision (RTC) and/or fire. However, conventionally powered vehicles are still more likely to catch fire.

We added the following information following the feedback from NTU

• Neighbourhood classifications - No specific trend that leads to similar neighbourhoods showing different characteristics of risk
• Spatial concentration of incidents – No significant link between incidents and postcodes to assess if there is a disproportionate occurrence of incidents
• Immigration – Further investigation was unable to identify correlation between immigration patterns and the risk of fires or RTCs
• The National Fire Chiefs Council (NFCC) domestic fire risk model - Work had commenced before NTU feedback was received and is now included in the CRP. Furthermore, we evaluated the NFCC model and found that homes identified as being higher risk had indeed experienced a disproportionate incidence of fire
• RTC – NFCC RTC risk model has been evaluated against the instance of RTCs across Surrey and found correlation in the major routes across the north of the county. However, there is less correlation in the more rural areas, possibly due to lower number of journeys. The overall number of RTCs per vehicle mile is lower than the national average.

Introduction

Welcome to Surrey Fire and Rescue Service's Community Risk Profile. As part of Surrey County Council, we're committed to safeguarding our communities.

The Fire and Rescue Services Act of 2004 mandates our fire and rescue service to

• Protect life and property during fires within our region
• Extinguish fires within our area
• Rescue and protect individuals involved in road traffic collisions
• Respond to other emergencies as needed.

These additional emergencies may include, but are not limited to

• Natural disasters, such as flooding
• Incidents related to terrorism
• Hazardous materials incidents
• Transportation-related emergencies
• National emergencies, such as the COVID-19 pandemic.

Our Community Risk Profile (CRP) assesses the risks faced by communities in Surrey. By analysing available data, we gain insights into potential threats. Fires, floods, and other emergencies can have devastating consequences for individuals, businesses, and communities. Understanding these risks allows us to allocate resources effectively and minimize the impact of incidents. Our efforts align with Surrey County Council's vision: "No one left behind."

In assessing risk, we consider various factors, both obvious and less apparent. The CRP incorporates data on population, past incidents, the natural environment, and local buildings. We identify trends and predict future challenges, such as changes in population. As we review the CRP, we explain use of specific information and its implications for risk. The impact may affect Surrey residents, passers-by, or our own Surrey Fire and Rescue Service staff.

While data analysis evolves over time, we commit to annual reviews and updates of this document. It's important to note that the CRP does not include information on how we manage the risks identified; for that, we rely on our Community Risk Management Plan, our strategies, which outlines prevention, protection, and response activities to reduce risk for both firefighters and communities.

The CRP is updated annually has been updated following the release of data in April 2024, and has been published in November 2024.

Methodology and data sources

Identifying risk levels involves various methodologies tailored to specific scenarios. For example, the National Fire Chiefs Council (NFCC) have developed an approach specifically for identifying and weighting risks in relation to accidental dwelling fires. The Service also has a well-established methodology in relation to identifying risk levels of business premises. In upcoming chapters, we will define the specifics of these methodologies and their application to relevant risk types.

Types of risk

We allocate risks in Surrey to one of four major categories (as visualised in the picture below)

• People: These risks are associated with specific characteristics of individuals. For example, different age groups may face varying fire risks. Mobility levels, people with limited mobility may have specific risks. Smoking habits, smokers face unique fire hazards
• Places: These risks relate to features in the built and natural environment. For example, some roads are more prone to road traffic collisions or land with housing developments, certain areas are more susceptible to flooding
• Premises: These risks are tied to specific features within buildings or sites. For example, non-domestic premises with on-site sleeping facilities have a higher risk due to potential fire incidents. High-rise developments, risks related to safe exit and building access. Heritage sites, valuable in terms of both fabric and contents
• Products: Risks arising as a result of the following - New product developments: Unique risk profiles or recalls (for example, overheating mobile phones, faulty tumble dryers). Existing products: Hazards if not used with care (for example, candles, cigarettes).

Data sources

Risk assessments rely on a combination of historical incident data and information about other contributing factors. By analysing past patterns, we can predict future likelihood. Additionally, identifying known risk factors, preferably at a localised level helps identify potential incident locations. For a comprehensive list of our data sources, please refer to our documentation in Appendix 1. Some of our data sources, maps and figures refer to station callsigns rather than locations. These are listed in Appendix 2.

Ordnance Survey mapping and data has been used throughout the document and is copyrighted accordingly. The full copyright notice is in Appendix 3.

People risks

When we refer to people risks we're addressing the danger individuals face from fires, especially accidental fires within their homes. These incidents can significantly impact both their physical well-being and their material possessions. In addition, this section will also look at the risk of deliberate fires started with malicious intent.

The Home Office collects data from every Fire and Rescue Service in England and Wales on a range of incidents including dwelling fires. When we compare the number of dwelling fires per 1000 people with those reported by other services, the number for Surrey (0.37) is below the England average (0.46) for 2022 to 2023. In 2002 the number of primary dwelling fires in Surrey was 1.5 primary dwelling fires per 1000 dwellings; in 2023 it had reduced to 0.9 dwelling fires per 1000 dwellings.

Understanding people's vulnerability to fire involves considering factors such as age and health. We therefore look at data about the population of Surrey to assess risk. In this section we look at the population, where people live, who is vulnerable to a fire, what are the main causes of a fire in a home and where those vulnerable to a fire live.

The population of Surrey and where people live

The 2021 Census records a population of 1,203,100 for Surrey, a 6.2% increase on the 2011 Census figure. This growth rate is slightly lower than the one for the whole of England of 6.6%. There are approximately 481,000 households in Surrey, up 5.7% from the number in 2011. Surrey-i shows general summary of 2021 Census data specific to Surrey. The Office for National Statistics has also published an interactive map of the 2021 Census.

Understanding where people live in Surrey, is crucial for effective prevention efforts and timely incident response. By strategically positioning our resources, we can better serve the community. The largest local authorities within Surrey by population from the 2021 Census are Reigate and Banstead (150,900) and Guildford (143,600), with the smallest being Epsom and Ewell (80,900). The most densely populated area is Epsom and Ewell, with an average population of over 2,000 people per square kilometre of land.
The location and highest concentration of domestic dwellings is around larger towns and villages, which is generally more intense in the north of the county.

There has been a growth in immigration across all Districts and Boroughs in Surrey between 2011 and 2021. In 2011 it ranged from 8.7% (Tandridge) to 19.9% (Woking). In 2021 that had increased to 11.0% (Tandridge) to 24.2% (Woking). The highest increase in immigration over the 10 year period occurred in Spelthorne (6.8%), and the lowest in Tandridge (2.3%). It is not possible to generalise about the impact of immigration on incident risk. Each immigrant community will be distinct and will need to be engaged with separately, to better understand any risk implications. However, to date, no significant risk factors have come to light in relation to any immigrant status.

Postcode analysis of dwelling fires

In the world of crime data, it has been found that 2 to 6% of streets account for 50% of crime. Therefore, we have analysed the spatial concentration of fire incidents over time, to see whether a similar pattern is evident. The analysis looked at each of the eleven districts/boroughs of Surrey in turn, then dwelling fire incidents are mapped across three time periods: 2014 to 2016, 2017 to 2019 and 2020 to March of 2024. In all instances when comparing those three time-phases the location of incidents moves around and is not confined to particular hotspots. There are some repeat incidents at the same postcodes over time, but they are not large or significant figures.

Analysis of incidents attended in relation to Middle-layer Super Output Areas

One of the major variables when looking at the distribution of incidents attended in the county of Surrey, is the differing densities of population. For example, an area of land with urban characteristics is likely to have significantly more people dwelling in that space or passing through that space when compared to the same sized area of land with more rural characteristics. One way to remove this distorting factor from a risk analysis is to divide the county into areas that broadly share the same population size.

Middle-Layer Super Output Areas area a statistical geography created for the census of England and Wales, with a typical population of 7,000 to 10,000 people. The county of Surrey contains 151 Middle-Layer Super Output Areas.

The analysis does not reveal any novel picture of the risk landscape. Property based fires tend to occur in town centres and built-up environments, Wildfires depend upon the presence of substantial green space so will be found in those areas, and RTCs are highest in areas that have major roads (motorways and A roads) running through them. Banstead is shown to have an unusually high level of primary fires in its Middle-Layer Super Output Areas, but this can be readily explained by the presence of a prison within its boundary, where deliberate fires are a regular occurrence. When considering all incident types, town areas continue to dominate. This may be because they are more than residential areas, as they also have a concentration of commercial, leisure and transport activities, that are likely to bring increase the likelihood of incident occurrence.

People vulnerable to a fire

When examining historic fatal fires, several factors significantly impact an individual's vulnerability to fire and the risk of injury or death during such incidents. These factors include

• Smokes in their home
• Is 65 or older
• Lives alone
• Has limited mobility, a hearing impairment or is blind or partially sighted
• Would have difficulty responding to, or escaping from, a fire
• Has had a fire previously or shows signs of burns or scorching in the home
  Has learning disabilities
• Is supported by family, carers and friends
• Shows signs of neglect or abuse by others
• Has a mental health condition such as dementia or depression
• Has drug or alcohol dependencies
• Doesn't have an alarm in all areas where a fire might start
• Collects or hoards in their home
• Shares a home with a child or young person who sets fires.

The number of domestic dwelling fire fatalities in Surrey every year is very low and is lower than the national average. We analysed 7 fires in Surrey between 1 April 2022 and 31 March 2024 that resulted in the deaths of 7 people. Six of those deaths were accidental and in one of those cases, hoarding was an issue. Four of those who died in accidental fires were smokers and smoking materials caused two of those fires. The 1 victim whose death was not deemed accidental was assessed to be a suicide. All the fatal fires, however caused, included at least one of the risk factors listed below and five of the victims were known to Surrey County Council's Adult Social Care team.

• Aged 65 or above
• Alcohol dependency
• Alzheimer's/ dementia
• Self-neglect
• Mobility issues
• Hoarding
• Living alone
• Smoker.

This is consistent with the national research. As more people are supported to live at home for longer, the risks increase for those who are vulnerable. The following paragraphs describe some of the characteristics listed above and the predicted increase expected in Surrey between 2023 and 2030.

The following characteristics tend to occur in more people aged over 65: living alone; unable to self-care; having a limiting long-term illness; and potentially having dementia. A significant increase in the number of residents aged over 65 is expected and this will also increase the number of people with one or more of those other characteristics . It is projected that the number of those living alone aged 65 and over will increase from 79,372 in 2023 to 89,195 in 2030, a rise of almost 12%.

People with mobility issues may find it harder to self-rescue and may suffer from slips, trips and falls. Residents aged 65 and over with a limiting long-term illness are predicted to increase from 96,416 in 2023 to 108,597 by 2030, an increase of 13%. Likewise, those unable to manage at least one self-care task on their own increases by 14% from 70,087 to 80,078, and those vulnerable to having a fall leading to hospital admission is expected to increase by 18% from 8,209 to 9,684.

Poor mental health is a contributory factor to fire deaths. Those with dementia may be more at risk of causing accidental fires and may be less able to self-rescue or respond to smoke alarms. Dementia is an increasingly prevalent condition, and one that is expected to rise. The number of people aged 65 and over with dementia in Surrey is predicted to increase from an estimated 18,577in 2023 to 21,428 in 2030, a rise of 15%.

A Home Office report using data from April 2022 to March 2023, found that the fire-related fatality rate per million is higher for men and older people. For men aged 65 to 79 the fatality rate was 14.4 per million population, while the equivalent rate for women was 5.5 per million. For those aged 80 and over, the rate for men was 18.4 per million and for women was 15.1 per million. This compares to the 'all age' rates of 5.9 per million for men and 3.3 per million for women. That same report states that someone is 10 times more likely to die in a fire if there is no working smoke alarm in their home.

For younger residents (18 to 24), common mental disorders, physical and learning disabilities and autistic spectrum disorders are factors that increase their vulnerability to fire. These factors show a steady state or slight decline between 2023 and 2030. Alcohol and drug dependencies and prevalence of smoking are forecast to register only small changes in that time. In 2023 there were 54,346 adults under 65 with drug and alcohol problems with a forecast increase of 0.07% to 2030.

Causes of fire in the home

According to Home Office statistics, in 2022/23 the largest cause of fires starting in England was cooking appliances, which caused 44% of accidental dwelling fires but only 10% of fire-related fatalities. Smoking materials accounted for only 8% of all accidental dwelling fires however, were involved in 35% of fire fatalities.

Smoking is a high-risk factor in causing fires. Looking at both Surrey and the national picture, smoking is seeing a downward trend in the percentage of adults who are current smokers since 2011. The percentage of adult smokers is around 20% in 2011 and steadily declining to around 13% in 2022. For Surrey the equivalent percentages are 15% and 12%. It is noticeable that following a declining trend, the year 2022 saw a relatively sharp increase to 12% from 8% in the previous year.

Types of dwelling and their construction

At the national level, there isn't a clear pattern indicating that one type of dwelling carries significantly more fire risk than another. However, clustering occurs when considering both dwelling type and occupancy type together. The highest occurrences of accident dwelling fires are against the following combinations

• Lone persons over pensionable age in 'other dwelling'
• Lone persons over pensionable age in bungalows
• Three or more adults under pensionable age (no children) in houses of multiple occupation
• Lone persons under pensionable age in converted flat/maisonette.

While the data on building construction materials used lacks strength, it's worth noting that the option 'other/not known' is selected in 9 out of 10 cases. Despite this limitation, the data does suggest that both thatched roofs and timber-framed construction are associated with greater fire damage. Additionally, when considering fire growth, thatched roofs and sandwich panels appear to pose a slightly higher risk

Smoke alarms and dwelling fire damage

Smoke alarms play a crucial role in reducing fire-related deaths and injuries. Properly installed and maintained smoke alarms provide early warnings, allowing occupants to exit quickly. Since April 2010 over the last 13 years, fires where no significant damage occurred, smoke alarms were present in the home 79% of the time. However, for fires that caused extensive damage (such as affecting the whole building or more than two floors), smoke alarms were present in only 38% of cases.

Assessing the risk of dwelling fires in Surrey

Most dwelling fires are accidental. During a period from 1st April 2018 to 31st March 2023, there have been approximately 450 to 550 incidents each year, covering all dwelling fires — whether accidental or deliberate. Focusing solely on accidental dwelling fires during the same timeframe; the numbers appear almost identical, indicating that deliberate fires are relatively rare. Deliberate fires involve those intentionally set to harm others or those initiated by the victims themselves.

The more we know about where domestic dwelling fires are likely to happen, the better we can target our resources to prevent them or minimise their impact. Several models and methodologies allow us to predict which areas and individual houses are most at risk of a dwelling fire. (A dwelling refers to any permanent domestic housing structure but does not include other types of sleeping accommodation such as nursing homes, boarding schools or hotels.)

Fires in the home and work location trends

The Covid-19 pandemic and associated measures, including lockdowns, created a shift in work locations. Prior to the pandemic, approximately 12% of the workforce worked from home at least part of the week. However, during the pandemic, this percentage increased significantly. The information is based on data from the Office for National Statistics Opinion and Lifestyle Survey.
As of April 2024, the percentage of people working from home remains significantly higher at 53% than pre-pandemic levels. This might be partly attributed to changed habits; however, we may also consider other factors such as train strikes.
While this increase in home working may lead to greater electricity usage due to more people using electronic devices, there is no evidence linking it to an increase in home fires.

NFCC National Risk methodology for UK Fire and Rescue Services - Domestic dwelling fires

The National Fire Chiefs Council (NFCC) developed a risk methodology that can be applied across all fire and rescue services to identify risks within our communities in a consistent way. The objective of this methodology is to use publicly available data to identify the most at risk homes within each service, by assessing the likelihood and consequence of a fire to assign every 'UPRN' a risk score. A Unique Property Reference Number (UPRN) is a unique identifier assigned to each addressable property in the country.

The NFCC worked with modelling consultants to compare incident data from the national Incident Reporting System (IRS) against a range of factors such as property age, type and ownership, and various measures of deprivation including income, employment, health and crime. Statistical modelling was then to determine which factors are most significant in determining the likelihood (the probability of a fire happening) and consequence (the extent of damage to the property, injury or death) of a fire occurring.

Several key risk factors included in the model are

• Income, crime, health and disability and living environment ranking in the local area*
• Unemployment or working full time*
• Property tenure (if home is rented or owned)
• Property type (Flat, detached, terraced etc)
• Property age
• Property council tax band and Energy Performance Certificate energy rating
• Children living in the property
• Overcrowding in the property
• Main language spoken
• Council tax band A/B
• Very poor health*

The data used in the model derives from IRS (contains incident data for Surrey), Census 2021, the Indices of Deprivation and tenure, age and energy performance of buildings from Open data communities (See Appendix 1 for list of sources). Based on the NFCC's approach, we collected data on various factors affecting the likelihood of dwelling fires. For each domestic UPRN in Surrey, we assigned a "likelihood score" and a "consequence score." For instance, detached homes, being less prone to fires compared to sheltered accommodation, receive a lower score.

Continuing with the analysis, we considered factors affecting the consequences of fires in terms of 'life' consequences and 'property' consequences. Flats and socially owned homes exhibited worse outcomes in terms of injuries and fatalities, leading to higher "life" scores. On the other hand, privately owned, detached, and older properties tended to experience more significant fire damage, resulting in higher "property" scores. In addition, each factor has a weighting; for example, the NFCC's statistical modelling suggests property tenure is more important in determining the likelihood of a fire than the age of the property, so the former carries a greater weighting than the latter. Combining the likelihood and consequence scores gives an overall 'risk score' for the approximate half a million domestic UPRNs across Surrey. We also include a flag to indicate if a UPRN has had a known dwelling fire in the past 5 years.

In many cases data is not available at a granular UPRN level, so we use Lower Super Output Area level data for the factors in the list with an asterix and apply the values to every UPRN within that area. England is divided into around 33,000 Lower Super Output Area, each with an average population of around 1,500. These Lower Super Output Area are ranked from the most deprived to the least deprived. Taking unemployment as an example, if we know the probability of being unemployed is 10% in a particular Lower Super Output Area then we apply that to every UPRN within that.

Some of the factors are positively correlated with likelihood or consequence such as a higher value indicates a greater risk of fire), however others have a negative relationship. For example

• Positive - Probability of being unemployed. Lower Super Output Area with a higher percentage of people who are unemployed are likely to have a higher number of dwelling fires.
• Negative - Probability of there being no children within a household. Where there are more households without children, this tends to indicate a lower number of dwelling fires.

When combining the likelihood and consequence scores, an overall 'risk score' is assigned to each domestic UPRN in Surrey. The top 5% of these scores are considered 'very high' risk UPRNs. Generally, there is a greater number of very high risk UPRNs in more populated areas such as towns and cities, due to more people living in these areas. Additionally, we are more likely to find areas of deprivation in urban areas and more people living in socially rented accommodation or flats, which are some of the factors known to influence the risk of a fire. Although rural areas have a lower population density, we acknowledge very high-risk homes are located across the whole county, including in some of the more remote areas.

Comparing the model results against the locations of domestic dwelling fires in the last 5 years; the model recognised risky homes relatively well, as many UPRNs across the county which are highlighted are also those that have experienced a fire. The 5% of homes identified as very high risk were responsible for a disproportionate share of dwelling fires, 12% accounting for dwelling fires in the last 5 years. In contrast, very low and low risk UPRNs account for 60% of homes but only 47% of the fires for the period examined.

However, the map also shows a significant number of other properties that experienced dwelling fires, would not be identified as high risk according to the modelling. This is particularly noticeable with dwelling fires in more rural or affluent locations on the map. This highlights the challenging nature of anticipating the location of fires as it is influenced by a wide variety of factors, including human behaviour and unexpected events which we cannot model. Relying solely on publicly available data has its limitations. While we lack insight into individual vulnerability factors and behaviours that could impact fire risk, exploring additional relevant data sources may provide valuable insights and improve the accuracy of our risk assessments.

We can also use the model to identify relatively risky areas across the county. Generally, the more at-risk areas are in or nearby towns and cities. However, there are occasional pockets of risk in otherwise low risk areas such as the areas north of Godalming and south of Dorking. Presenting the data in this way indicates these areas are higher risk not only because there are more homes in these areas, however also due to these accounting for a greater proportion of all homes.

Deliberate fires

A significant number of fires are started deliberately. Most of these incidents are outdoors, for example, bin fires or setting fire to vehicles. Analysing the data collected by the Home Office and comparing our incident numbers per 1000 head of population with those of other Fire and Rescue Services, we have fewer deliberate fires than the national average: 0.5 incidents per 1,000 people in Surrey compared to the English average of 1.4 incidents per 1,000 people

To assess the risk, we look at locations of deliberate fires and how they might correlate with street crime. Most deliberate fires occur in the north of the county reflecting the main areas of population settlements. There is an area around the town of Ash. The hotspots here are more intense for deliberate fire incidents than they are for street-level crime. This area has green spaces in proximity and many of these fires are outdoor grassland, woodland or scrubland fires.

The towns of Guildford, Redhill, Staines-upon-Thames and Epsom show greater street-level crime than deliberate fires. This suggests that increased street-level crime does not necessarily always result in a higher level of deliberate fires. There is a deliberate fire hotspot around Banstead, is strongly influenced by the location of two prisons in the area and this unusual demographic needs to be recognised.

Conclusion

The rate of dwelling fires has fallen in Surrey over the last two decades, however the number of dwelling fires Surrey experiences every year has broadly stable since 2018. One reason could be that the population of Surrey has grown during this time and is forecast to continue growing. Although we've seen a decline in factors correlated with fire, such as smoking status, Surrey has a significant proportion of residents over 65. The population is expected to continue aging meaning the number of people particularly vulnerable to a dwelling fire may increase.

Our analysis shows that Surrey is generally a safe place to live but we will continue to develop modelling techniques to help identify areas with the greatest risk. This will enable us to target our resources to help prevent fires and make homes safer.

Place Risks

These risks refer to both natural environments and built features in Surrey. They include

• Travel on roads and other transportation infrastructure
• Fires in heathlands and woodlands
• Rescues from rivers, bodies of water, and flood plains.

Built premises are covered in our separate section on premises risks.

Risk of road traffic collisions

Surrey has approximately 3,409 miles of roads, with the majority being minor or A and B roads. However, we do have some of the country's busiest arterial routes such as the M3, A3, M25 and M23. Our roads carry almost double the natioal average amount of traffic and the county has more cars per mile of road than any other non-metropolitan county. Please see the Reported road collisions, vehicles and casualties tables for Great Britain published by the Department for Transport.

The metropolitan counties are the West Midlands, Greater Manchester, West Yorkshire, Merseyside, South Yorkshire and Tyne and Wear.

The Department for Transport (DfT) collates data on the number of road collisions and casualties. In Surrey between 2018-2022 the annual number of casualties of all severities is around 2,750 on average. The lowest number of reported collisions in the last few years was 2,334 during 2020, a likely result of the pandemic lockdowns. The highest number of casualties in this period was reported at 3,113 in 2018.

Data shows the total number of casulatise on roads within Surrey in the years 2018-2022 includes both those who are injured and those who were killed) exceed collisions when more than one person is injured or killed in the same incident. The lowest number of fatalities was 25 recorded in 2021, with Surrey experiencing around 30 road fatalities on average a year. The data shows a gradual rise in the number of casualties as the volume of traffic increased in the years after the pandemic. These figures are subject to change as DfT estimates are revised in retrospect.

In 2022, there were more than the national average number of RTCs in Surrey compared with other local authorities (2,783 in Surrey vs 512 average for other local authorities). However, after accounting for the high volume of miles driven in Surrey each year, the rate of collisions per mile driven is below the average of other local authorities in Britain (approx. 332 collisions per billion vehicle miles driven in Surrey vs 474 local authority average). Vehicle collisions accounted for 8.8% of all the incidents we attended in 2022/23.

Incidents which Surrey Fire and Rescue Service (SFRS) has attended on the road network between 1 April 2022 and 31 March 2023 identifies sections of the M25, M3 and A3 as areas where we see the highest concentration of incidents. Generally, the greatest concentration of incidents is in the north of the county around the M25 and more populous towns and cities.

Location of all known collisions on the road network using data from Safer Roads Partnership (RTCs have been reported but SFRS have not attended) show similar trends and identifies the M25, M3, A3 with the greatest concentration of incidents. However, the data also highlights additional roads as experiencing RTCs, for example around the M23 near Redhill and the A31 through Farnham. It is important to note that although these roads have seen the highest concentrations of RTCs, they are also some of the busiest roads in the county.

National Risk Methodology for UK FRS: Road Traffic Collisions

The National Fire Chiefs Council (NFCC) have developed a risk methodology that can be applied across all Fire and Rescue Services to identify the most at risk roads for road traffic collisions (RTC). The NFCC worked with consultants to identify factors that influenced the likelihood and consequence of an RTC. The consequence of an RTC is measured by multiple factors including the number of fatalities/casualties and whether vehicles skid or overturn. They divided all roads in England and Wales into segments in order to assign a risk score to each, which is a combination of the likelihood and consequence of an RTC on each section of the road network.

It was determined that road class (for example, Motorway, A road, Minor Road etc), type (dual carriageway, roundabout etc), speed and whether or not it is urban/rural, all affect the likelihood and consequence of an RTC to varying extents. The key findings from the analysis are broadly intuitive and show the likelihood of RTCs is generally higher on motorways and major roads, roundabouts near traffic islands, roads with higher speed limits and roads in urban areas. In terms of consequence, the proportion of high consequence RTCs generally increased with speed limits, was higher on single and dual carriageways. Roundabouts have comparatively few high consequence RTCs, as drivers are often stationary or travelling at low speeds. Different to likelihood, the consequence of RTCs increases on more rural roads. Potentially due to narrow country roads, with relatively fast speed limits and poor visibility round bends.

To determine an overall risk for RTCs, the NFCC scored each road segment from 1 to 5 on likelihood and consequence, to create a risk score from 1 to 25. 1 being the lowest risk (low likelihood and consequence) and 25 being the highest risk (high likelihood and consequence). In Surrey, our highest risk score is 16.

Although we have a significant proportion of the M25 running through Surrey, much of it is not categorised as the highest RTC risk. Instead, many of our high risk roads for RTCs are the relatively fast roads in rural areas which connect major towns and cities. Many of the minor roads in places such as Guildford, Walton-on-Thames and Redhill are categorised with the lowest risk scores. When comparing the location of RTCs on the Surrey road network with the NFCC RTC risk model, the findings are varied. The model identifies motorways and A roads connecting major towns and cities as generally being the riskiest and this broadly correlates with where RTCs have occurred. However, it also assigns high risk scores to several of the larger roads in the south of the county, where we have not experienced or needed to attend high numbers of RTCs.

However, the RTC data we have shown only accounts for the number of incidents and not the severity or number of casualties. Alternatively, these roads may indeed be risky, but we have been fortunate not to experience a concentration of incidents during the period examined.

Driver age and risk

Analysing the profile of drivers with casualties between 2018-2022, 2,140 drivers aged between 17 and 24 years were casualties in road accidents on Surrey roads. This represented 20% of all driver casualties during this period. When we look at the population of Surrey, we find that the number of people aged between 17 and 24 years was 11% of those aged 17 and over. This indicates that younger drivers are overrepresented in road driver casualties.

Risks related to transport

Surrey has two of the world's largest international airports on its borders, Gatwick and Heathrow and has several small airfields within its borders. We also have Farnborough airport just outside our border. Plans for a third runway at Heathrow airport and second at Gatwick are being kept under review, as both would be likely to increase air traffic movements and traffic on the road network. A further unique road network risk for Surrey is the Hindhead Tunnel, which is the UK's longest underground tunnel. Most major towns in Surrey have connections by rail to central London. Rail network incidents are rare but can have severe effects.

Risk of wildfires

Surrey boasts a diverse range of countryside, including flat areas in the Thames Basin, the rolling hills of the North Downs and Wealden Greensand, expansive open heathlands, secluded wooded gills, small scale farmland, open meadows, river valleys, and serene water bodies. Woodland covers 22% of the county, while heathland and chalk downland also contribute to its distinctive character. Farmland, including that of the Low Weald, plays a significant role in shaping the landscape. Over 25% of the county is designated as an Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty (AONB), home to the Surrey Hills and the High Weald AONBs. Surrey's extensive biodiversity and historically significant parklands further enhance its natural appeal.

Our countryside, with its mix of natural fuels, such as pine needles, tree moss, fir trees, leaves and twigs, mean there is potential for wildfires to occur. A wildfire is any fire occurring in natural vegetation, consuming the natural fuels and spreading in the environment. They can range in size from a fire that takes only one front line appliance to deal with, to a fire that needs multiple resources over several days. They are usually caused by some sort of human activity, for example, use of barbequeue's, smoking materials, careless disposal of glass or prescribed burning for land management purposes.

About 15,500 hectares of land have been identified as a wildfire risk. This is equivalent to around 60 square miles. Surrey itself covers about 642 square miles. Much of the land at risk of wildfire is a site of special scientific interest or special protection area.
The risk of wildfires is greatest in prolonged spells of hot, dry weather which makes the natural vegetation more combustible. Climate change is a pressing global issue, and its effects are already evident in the United Kingdom. According to Met Office analysis, we can anticipate several changes across the United Kingdom in the future

• Warmer and wetter winters
• Hotter and drier summers
• More frequent and intense weather extremes.

These projections indicate that the right conditions for wildfires and flooding are likely to be present in future. The Met Office UK Climate Change website provides more information.

There is some clear clustering of hotspots, with many of our largest fires in the north and west of the county towards Camberley. The areas in the north of Surrey include stretches of motorway where use might be impacted by a nearby wildfire. However, the risk is present across other areas of the county and that some of our largest fires have been in areas which otherwise haven't experienced many fires.

Primary wildfires are those that had five or more front line fire appliances in attendance at the same time. Secondary wildfires are those with up to four pump appliances in attendance. Here, wildfire is defined as fires on grassland, heathland, moorland, crops/stubble, tree scrub, scrubland, wasteland, or woodland. In the five years ending 31 March 2024 was 551 incidents in 2020/21, but the following year that combined total was down to approximately 266 incidents, only to increase again to 502 in 2022/23. In addition to considering how often wildfires occur, and whether there has been a geographical clustering of those incidents over the last five years, it is helpful to understand the nature of the larger wildfire incidents that have taken place.

Within the service, we typically consider fires requiring 4 appliances or over 10,000m² as a wildfire; however, we are presenting data on fires over 500m² as this represents a large area of damage and without timely intervention these could have turned into larger incidents. After a fire has been contained, estimating the precise extent of damage poses challenges. Therefore, we are analysing data covering a broader range of damage sizes for comprehensive analysis. The particularly hot summer of 2022, had the highest number of large fires in the last five years. The overall total of 56 was around twice to three times as many in the previous years. Fires with an estimated damage area of over 5000 m² accounted for almost half of these incidents.

Larger wildfires generally cause more damage to the environment and pose greater threat to people and properties. They also demand a lot of service resources in terms of the number of appliances and the number of hours over which they are needed. During these larger wildfires, those appliances are not available for other incidents, which creates risk in relation to responding to those other incidents. However, when taking into account both the size and primary/secondary classification of fires, it is worth noting that fires causing the greatest damage are not always those requiring a large number of pumps.

Taking 2023/24 as an example, 11 of the 19 fires requiring 5 or more pumps in this period were smaller wildfires resulting in less than 500 square meters of damage. Explanations for this could be that higher pump attendance helped prevent the wildfires from spreading further, or the risk of damage to property or life meant these fires were met with increased attendance.

Wildfires and visits to countryside sites

At a national (Great Britain) level there is no indication of growing visitor numbers to the countryside, in fact the trend up to 2019 shows a slight reverse. Locally, Surrey County Council manages several countryside sites, for the larger sites there is some monitoring of car park numbers. We compared wildfire incidents attended per 10,000 vehicles in the car parks between June 2019 and May 2024. This shows that the part of Chobham Common accessed from the Fishpool car park, and the top of the Norbury site, are the clear places for a high number of wildfires in relation to car park use.

By comparing the volume of car park visits with the number of wildfires, we can explore whether there is a relationship between visitor numbers and the number of wildfires. We find that there is not a strong relationship between the number of car park visits and the occurrence of wildfires at these sites. Surrey County Council is in the process of extending the visitor data capture in some locations to also include those who arrive other than by car. It is worth reviewing any relationship once this complete data becomes available. Climate predictions and our data suggest that wildfires will continue to pose a risk. However, we cannot be certain of how frequently, how severe or exactly where wildfires will occur.

Risks related to flooding and water rescues

There are two main types of water related risk

• Flooding caused when rivers overflow their banks, affecting areas that include residential properties and surface water floods which also contribute to flooding incidents.
• Distress in Bodies of Water. This risk involves individuals encountering difficulties while in reservoirs, lakes, or rivers.
  Flooding incidents

Surrey is vulnerable to both inundation of floodplains by river water (fluvial floods), and local flooding of the drainage networks when overwhelmed by intense rainstorms (surface water floods). Nearly 64,000 households in Surrey are at risk of fluvial flooding, predominantly from the rivers Wey, Mole and Thames. 24,000 of these households are high risk. The most significant fluvial flood zones are in the north of Surrey around the boroughs of Spelthorne, Elmbridge and Surrey Heath. Surface water floods could occur anywhere. They can occur quickly and without warning, the water level is generally no more than 1 metre deep. They do not usually present a threat to life, an usually subside quickly but can cause a lot of economic damage and disruption to transport.

In 2013/14, Surrey experienced sustained flooding, leading to a sharp increase in the call outs for flooding incidents and water rescue. This was particularly felt in Elmbridge, Runnymede, Mole Valley, Spelthorne and Guildford boroughs. Between 1 April 2019 and 31 March 2024 flooding incidents that SFRS has attended in the period has ranged from over 465 incidents in 2022/23 down to 245 incidents in 2019/20. The service attended 348 incidents in the year 2023/24, a 25% decrease in the number of incidents compared to the previous year.

Reviewing the Home Office data on flooding incidents across England, per 1000 head of population (in this context the data includes both flooding due to natural causes, and other causes such as burst pipes), Surrey experienced below average number of incidents for the year ending 31 March 2021. In that year, flooding incidents accounted for 2.61% of all incidents we attended. One of the factors that affects flooding incidents is the weather, which in turn is affected by climate change. Evidence increasingly shows that an increase in man-made carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will have many global impacts.

In Surrey, the likelihood of more prolonged and intense spells of hot weather will increase, along with a heightened risk of flooding and reduced availability of drinking water. The occurrence of these events depends on the effectiveness of measures taken to reduce carbon emissions.

Rescues from water

In 2023 in the UK

• Inland waterways, continue to be the leading locations for accidental drowning, accounting for 63% of deaths in locations including rivers, canals, lakes, reservoirs, and quarries. Males continue to over represent with 83% of accidental fatalities
• Of the 236 accidental fatalities in the UK in 2023; 28 occurred in June, with 20 in July and 21 in August
• Everyday activities like walking and running accounted for 48% of accidental fatalities. Many of those who lost their lives were not intending to enter the water, 88 of the fatalities (37%) were walking or running before the accident. (Source: Water Incident Database, National Water Safety Forum).

Surrey has no coast, but it does have several rivers, lakes and reservoirs, and most are used for transport and leisure activities. The River Thames presents additional risks due to the number of dwellings on islands within the Surrey stretch of the river. Between 2010 and 2024 SFRS responded to 4,317 water-related incidents. We performed rescues in 502 of those incidents and, sadly, recovered fatalities in 62 of those incidents. There were 71 fire deaths in the same period. Water and fire fatalities continue to be comparable.

Water rescues

Water rescues that SFRS has attended in the period 1 April 2019 to 31 March 2024 range from 21 in 2021/22 up to 53 in 2023/24. Notably, there is a evidence in our data showing concentration of water rescues in the northern part of the county.

Conclusion

Surrey has some of the busiest roads in the country, especially in the northern part near London and the M25. Despite experiencing more road traffic collisions than other local authorities, when considering the high number of miles driven annually in Surrey, the collision rate remains below average. Wildfires are most common in the North-West, while flooding incidents occur more frequently in the popular northern areas. These events are influenced by weather conditions, which are expected to become more unstable due to climate change. Our data shows that fatalities from drowning are comparable to those caused by fire.

Premises Risks

Premises are mainly buildings that are owned commercially, which include hospitals, schools, shops and offices, and can be known as commercial premises. The fire safety requirements for non-domestic premises are regulated by legislation, which also applies to residential blocks including high-rise, therefore are being considered in this section.

All premises must be safe for people to visit, work, and live in. We need to assess the risks associated with various premises in Surrey and understand the implications of a fire incident. Our risk assessment considers two key factors

• Likelihood of Fire Occurrence: How probable is it that a fire will happen?
• Fire Consequences: What would be the impact if a fire does occur?

The risks associated with fire incidents can arise from various factors

• Overnight Occupancy: commercial premises, such as hospitals, hotels, and hostels, accommodate people who sleep overnight.
• Higher Risk Equipment or Materials: Businesses that store chemicals or highly combustible materials pose an increased risk due to the potential for fires to start or the severity of their impact
  Specialist Firefighting Considerations: Certain premises, like high-rise buildings, may require specialised firefighting strategies or equipment in case of a fire.
  Heritage Value: Premises with significant heritage value, such as listed buildings, need careful fire safety measures.

Many commercial premises are equipped with fire alarm systems that can trigger even when there is no actual fire. Responding to these false alarms can have unintended consequences. When a fire engine is dispatched to a false alarm, it diverts resources and may delay the response to genuine incidents. Consequently, addressing false alarms effectively is crucial to maintaining efficient emergency services.

How likely is it that a fire will happen?

Generally we see a reducing rate of both primary fires and other incidents per 1000 premises. We have data referencing the location of 35,333 commercial premises in Surrey. This derives from our Risk Based Inspection Programme. Many of these premises are in areas of high-density population as they are there to serve the population. The Risk Based Inspection Programme data rates premises on the likelihood of fire occurring. There are 8,488 premises classified as either very high, or high risk.

Of the higher risk premises 0.6% have experienced significant accidental fires in the last five years. There is only one address that has had more than 10 such fires in this period, and that is East Surrey Hospital. Of the 26,845 premises which are rated as medium risk 1.2% of these premises have experienced significant fires in the last five years. There is only one address that has had more than 10 such fires in this period, and that is Highdown Prison.

Analysis carried out on fires that occurred in commercial premises between 2017 and 2023 highlighted that the percentage of new businesses which experienced fires, was significantly higher than the percentage of established businesses that experienced fires. This is approximately 0.9% in 2019 and 2020 for established businesses, and 6% in 2020 for new businesses. In terms of anticipating where future incidents might occur, we know they are more likely to be at the premises of new businesses.

Understanding and maintaining compliance with regulations is crucial. When adherence to one set of rules is lacking, it often signals wider issues, including fire safety. For instance, the Environmental Health Food Hygiene Rating is a simple indicator of compliance at premises which are required to meet certain standards of fire safety. Using compliance data from other regulators helps us identify premises where fire safety might be an issue.

What are the consequences if a fire does occur?

We consider there to be a high risk to life in commercial premises where people sleep who are deemed vulnerable due to factors such as age, physical or mental impairment, unfamiliarity with the premises, or other characteristic that presents risk to those individuals. Or, where the premises present risk to the occupants due to the type of construction, its use, or other inherent characteristic (such as high-rise residential buildings). Awareness and reaction times are greatly reduced during sleep and if the correct fire safety measures are not in place, occupants may be subject to a much higher risk of death or injury in the event of a fire.

A distinct aspect of risk around business premises fires, is the risk to safety of firefighters attending such premises in the event of a reported incident. Our operational crews gather risk information for firefighter safety by visiting high-risk premises. We store the data on a customer relationship management platform, and it is available to crews attending incidents via the mobile data terminals on our fire engines.

High-rise premises

High-rise buildings are designed to resist fire and prevent the spread of smoke. While most fires remain contained within the unit where they originated, the height of these buildings require specialised firefighting strategies and equipment. There are around 90 high-rise buildings in Surrey, mainly concentrated around the main urban centres.

Heritage premises

Surrey has 105 Grade I and 352 Grade II (judged to be of a particular national importance or special interest) listed buildings. The age of some of these buildings means their design allows fire to spread rapidly. Co-ordinated planning is needed to prevent fires occurring and to mitigate these effects if they do. The areas of high clustering of heritage properties surround Guildford, Godalming and Farnham.

Fire false alarms and risk

Fire false alarms represent the biggest main type of incident which the Service attends. Over the past five financial years, the proportion of false fire alarms has fluctuated between 43% and 47%. Non-fire incidents (special services, for example, road traffic collisions, lift rescues, water rescues etc) are the next largest category. Fires represent about a quarter to a fifth of all incidents over this time.

We receive false alarms for fire incidents for three main reasons

• Due to apparatus. For example an automated signal sent by a fire alarm system (70% in 2023/24).
• Good intent. For example the caller believed in the probability of an uncontrolled fire (29% in 2023/24).
• Malicious. For example the caller did not think there was a fire (1% in 2023/24).

The number of fire false alarms received in Surrey during the year ending 31 March 2023 as a proportion of all incidents attended, was similar to those received by other fire and rescue services in England. The figure for all fire false alarms has dropped from 271 per 1000 non-domestic properties in 2002 to 132 in 2023. The Service does not want to discourage 'good intent' false alarms as it is better to follow up on such concerns raised in person. On the other hand, fire false alarms raised maliciously or due to faulty or over-sensitive apparatus have no value. If a fire false alarm results in despatching resources to that (false) incident, those resources become unavailable to respond to any other incident. This increases the risk of longer response times to those other incidents.

The data very clearly illustrates that the number of maliciously motivated fire false alarms is so small that the risk impact of resource diversion is minimal. Fire false alarms due to apparatus represented between 66% and 74% of all fire false alarms over the last five years. In 2002 false alarms due to apparatus/non-domestic property was 195 per 1000 non-domestic properties. In 2023 it was 91. Our change in approach to dealing with automatic fire alarms in some non-domestic properties, which began in 2022, has the potential to reduce false alarm attendances by 1,000 a year.

Conclusion

Using the Risk Based Inspection Program data, we know the location of commercial premises that are most likely to have a fire, or where the consequences of a fire will be most serious or require special firefighting strategies. Having detailed information about the location and layout of particular buildings, for example, heritage buildings helps us plan to mitigate the effects of fire. Our analysis of historic incidents and using data from other regulators enables us to identify types of premises that might be at an increased risk of fire. We take this into consideration when we are planning our business safety activities aimed at preventing fires in commercial premises.

The fact that the proportion of fires in higher-risk premises where we focus our business safety and inspection activity is less than in medium to low-risk premises, suggests that our activity is succeeding in reducing the number of fires.

A significant proportion of all incidents to which the Service is called to are fire false alarms due to equipment. The actual number of fire false alarms has remained consistent over the last five years, however the number received per 1000 commercial premises continues to decline. A growing number of commercial properties is not generating additional false fire alarms.

Product Risks

There are three categories of products that create risks

• Existing products which can cause risk if not used with proper care for example, candles, cigarettes
• New product developments with a unique profile of risk
• Specific makes/brands of a product being recalled due to known occurrences of incidents, for example, mobile phones or chargers overheating, faulty tumble dryers, alternative fuelled vehicles.

Safe products, unsafe use

The Home Office identified the following factors across England in 2022/23 as the cause of accidental dwelling fires.

• 29% due to misuse of equipment or appliances
• 15% due to placing articles too close to heat
• 5% due to chip/fat pan fires.

With these products, the problem is not with the products themselves, but with how they are being used.
The knowledge of which type of products are causing fires when used without appropriate care, informs the education and awareness campaigns we run, and the advice we give householders and businesses when we make Safe and Well visits.

Unsafe products

Our Fire Investigation team monitors product safety alerts through channels such as:

• Association of Manufacturers of Domestic Appliances
• Electrical Safety First
• Office of Product Safety and Standards
• NFCC Fire Investigation Workplace site
• Fire Investigations
• Trading Standards investigations.

Any emerging trend or issue is then highlighted to partners for joint investigation and notice to the media team for informing the community if appropriate. One such example was where the Service attended a fire involving a gas barbeque. The Fire Investigation Team identified the cause as a faulty regulator purchased from Amazon. The Team fed this into Trading Standards which then took the case forward for having the product removed from Amazon, removing the risk from sale.

Emerging and alternative technology

There are new products and technologies coming onto the market and having a radical change to the status quo. We monitor national and international trends, best practice and developing risks. These include, but are not limited to, the following areas

• Electricity generation from renewable energy projects over 150kW by means of Landfill Gas, Solar Photovoltaics, Anaerobic Digestion and Advanced Conversion Technologies (for example, Energy extraction from waste). Within Surrey we have 17 sites that are operational or under construction in these categories with an installed capacity of 40.2 megawatt of electricity. There are currently 15 sites awaiting construction with an estimated 5.4 megawatt of additional capacity. The vast majority of these are small scale roof Solar Photovoltaics.
• Battery Storage Facilities at grid scale (over 150kW). Within Surrey we currently have 1 site with 6 megawatt capacity. There are 5 stand-alone battery facilities in the planning stages (one at 100 megawatt, three between 6-14 megawatt and one which has not yet declared capacity)
• Battery Storage Units at domestic or small industrial scale
• Ultra-Low Emission Vehicles such as battery, plug-in hybrid, hydrogen, liquified or compressed natural gas.

Please see the following findings regarding Ultra-Low Emission Vehicles.

• Britain now has over 1 million electric cars in its fleet, with 1 in every 6 new vehicles sold being electric. This will increase over the next decade until 2035 when the government has mandated that all new vehicles sold must be zero-emission.
• Electric vehicles (EV) are less likely to catch fire than internal combustion engine vehicles.
• Large quantities of water are the most effective way to extinguish an EV battery fire and may therefore require more resources from fire services. Current best practice is to allow the battery to burn out. If this is not possible then re-ignition risk should be considered.
• Light electric vehicles (scooters, bikes etc)
• Top loading storage facilities and other fulfilment centre technologies
• Modular construction and cross-laminated timber
• Automated car parks
• District Heat Networks (systems that use a single central heat source to distribute hot water through a network of insulated pipes to multiple individual dwellings). There are six such networks under construction in Surrey as at 31 March 2024.
• The proliferation of lithium-ion batteries and the products that run on them has resulted in an exponential increase in incidents resulting in injuries and fatalities.

At global level the total number of incidents reported for each category is as follows

• Consumer Products: 1301 injuries, 131 fatalities
• Electric Vehicles (>20MPH): 118 injuries, 89 fatalities
• Micro-Mobility Devices (<20MPH): 1370 injuries, 251 fatalities
• Energy Storage Systems: 51 injuries, 4 fatalities.

In the UK there is an increase in total number of incidents over time.

Incident awareness and Analysis

Reporting is critical in understanding the depth and nature of this challenge. With limited visibility into battery incidents globally, the data currently available is just the start – there are many more incidents occurring than being reported. Some countries release bulk estimates rather than individual data points. Others, like Japan, provide weekly data points through their National Institute of Technology and Evaluation.

Conclusion

At a national level, the leading cause accounting for around half of accidental dwelling fires remains unsafe use of otherwise safe products, followed by unsafe products which account for around a quarter. Understanding which products have caused fires enables the Service to educate and inform residents about their safe use and to get dangerous products withdrawn from sale. Monitoring emerging technology allows the Service to adapt by implementing new procedures and/or equipment to deal with incidents.

Broader Risks

There are risks outside the 4 p's classification we have used in this profile. These risks are considered in the National Risk Register and the Surrey Local Resilience Forum Community Risk Register, which are discussed in this section. The Service monitors these risk registers and works with partners to understand and prepare for these risks which pose wider spread consequences but are potentially of lower probability. There is also a changed risk profile from larger scale building works.

The National Risk Register

The National Risk Register (NRR) is created across government and other stakeholders using rigorous assessment to ensure the most severe risks are recorded. The NRR provides information on the most significant risks that could occur, and which could have a wide range of impacts on the UK. The NRR does not provide insight into evolving risks or how current risk may change, for example climate change, and technology.

The higher-level risks identified in the National Risk Register are: large-scale chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) attack, pandemic, coastal flooding, river flooding, surface water flooding, widespread electricity failure, severe space weather, attack on infrastructure, loss of positioning, navigation and timing (PNT) services, reservoir/dam collapse, animal disease – major outbreak of foot and mouth disease, failure of gas supply infrastructure, high temperatures and heatwaves, low temperatures and snow, deliberate disruption of UK space systems and space-based services, nuclear miscalculation not involving the UK, outbreak of an emerging infectious disease.

The Surrey Local Resilience Forum Community Risk Register

The Surrey Local Resilience Forum (SLRF) is a multi-agency partnership that provides a structure to help agencies plan and work together to prepare for major incidents and emergencies which may have a significant impact on the community. While emergencies of this nature are unlikely, it is useful to understand the types of risks. Within Surrey the SLRF undertakes a review of the national risks and those risks facing the county and produces a Community Risk Register that highlights potential hazards in our area.

The risks categorised as very high or high as follows: major social care provider failure, failure of national electricity transmission, food supply contamination, major wildfire, severe space weather, storms, high temperatures and heatwave, low temperatures and heavy snow, fluvial flooding, surface water flooding, poor air quality, pandemic, emerging infectious disease, major outbreak of foot and mount, major outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza and public disorder.

New Developments

The planning application process within Surrey is generally dealt with by one of the 11 district and borough councils. Each of the 11 districts and boroughs in Surrey has an existing or emerging local plan to deal with larger scale development planning policy and proposals. These lay out the planned development across the districts and the infrastructure needed to support it. Overall, these have a target to increase housing by 3,510 homes per year across Surrey, whereas government estimates are that 6,300 new homes will be required.

Alongside the local plans is an overarching plan by, Surrey 2050 Place Ambition. This intends to facilitate growth in sustainable and proportionate ways. There are eight strategic opportunity areas identified and four new communities (Dunsfold, Longcross, South Godstone and Wisley) alongside infrastructure and other developments. The implementation of the plan is led through the Surrey Development Forum, a partnership of stakeholders who identify and address strategic issues, share best practice and facilitate collaborative, creative thinking to achieve sustainable growth in Surrey for the benefit of the current and future communities.

There are several nationally significant infrastructure projects in Surrey which include the Southampton to London pipeline project, M25/A3 Wisley interchange improvement, Gatwick northern runway and River Thames scheme. The first two have been approved and are underway, the latter two are in the pre-application and planning stages.

River Thames Scheme

A new flood channel 8km long will be created to reduce the risk of flooding to homes, businesses, and infrastructure, while also providing habitat for wildlife and a new feature in the landscape for recreation. The channel will be flanked by new areas of public green open space, for recreation and spending time with nature. The channel sections will always have some water in them. Additionally, improvements will be made to the weirs at Sunbury, Molesey, and Teddington which will allow increased flow in the main river.

As water levels in the River Thames rise, the new flood channel sections will operate by gradually carrying the additional flow, so the water in the River Thames stays within its banks. This continues until the new channel sections are 'full' and no more water can be diverted into them. At this point, the River Thames will start to flood. However, because the channel sections and additional weir gates provide extra space for the water, the risk of flooding from the River Thames will be greatly reduced. The River Thames Scheme expect to appoint a construction partner in Autumn 2025. There are no fixed timescales at this point.

When Do Incidents Occur?

We have looked at different types of risks and the data that's available to help us see who is at risk and where they are. We also need to consider when people are at greatest risk. Looking at the time of day and the time of year when incidents have happened in the past is a useful indicator of when they might occur in the future. The following analysis is for incidents attended within Surrey over the period from April 2018 to March 2024.

There are three main incident types

• Fires (19% in 2023/24)
• Non-fire incidents (38% in 2023/24)
• Fire false alarms (43% in 2023/24).

These are broken down into different sub-types based on extent of damage, motivation behind the incident (for example, deliberate versus accidental fires), type of property involved where relevant and the nature of non-fire incidents.

All incidents

Analysis for hour of day: there is an uneven distribution of incidents over the course of a typical 24-hour period. The volume noticeably takes an upturn between the hours of 6am and 7am. The peak demand occurs between 5pm and 6pm, whilst the downturn noticeably happens between 6pm and 8pm. Over the course of a typical day, the number of incidents tends to increase when most people start getting up in the morning, peaks between 5pm and 6pm and begins noticeably dropping between 6 and 8pm. 62% of incidents occur between the hours of 7am and 7pm, and 38% occur between 7pm and 7am.

Analysis for day of week: there is no big variation in incident numbers between different days of the week. The highest number occurred on a Saturday (14.7% of incidents), with Tuesday having the lowest number (14.1% of incidents).

Analysis for month of year: there is no strong seasonal variation, however there are moderate signs, for example, the three months with the highest numbers all occur in the summer season. The month with the lowest number of incidents is March (7%) and the month with the highest is July (10%). The seasonal distribution is as follows

• Summer (Jun/Jul/Aug) = 28%
• Autumn (Sept/Oct/Nov) = 25%
• Winter (Dec/Jan/Feb) = 23%
• Spring (Mar/Apr/May) = 24%

The increase in the summer months is largely attributed to a greater volume of outdoor fires, both primary and secondary. Road vehicle fires also tend to increase in this period. Other increases occur in good intent fire false alarms, animal assistance and other rescue/release of people.

Analysis volume trend over last five financial years: there are moderate signs of decline in incident numbers. The effect of the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns and other restrictions to usual behaviours resulted in a larger than usual fall in incident numbers in 2020/21(FY2021). Fewer road journeys meant fewer road traffic collisions. As restrictions eased in 2021/22, the number of incidents increased, but not back to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels.

Fire incidents

We categorise fire incidents into three main types

• Primary fires (56% in 2023/24)
• Secondary fires (42%) in 2023/24)
• Chimney fires (2% in 2023/24)

Primary fires are the most serious type of fire incident. They involve fires to owned property and fires that have caused significant damage in any property. Secondary fires are all other fires apart from chimney fires, which are separately identified.

Primary fire analysis for hour of day: this is very similar to the distribution for all incidents. The only differences are that there are triple peaks around the hours of 1pm, 4pm and 6pm and that the downturn occurs at a slightly earlier time between 6pm and 7pm.

Primary fire analysis for day of week: there is no big variation in incident numbers between different days of the week. The highest number occurred on a Monday (15% of incidents), with Friday having the lowest number (13% of incidents).

Primary fire analysis for month of year: there is stronger seasonal variation compared to all incidents. There is a peak in July (10%). The month with the lowest number of incidents is February (6%). The seasonal distribution is as follows:

• Summer (Jun/Jul/Aug) = 28%
• Autumn (Sept/Oct/Nov) = 24%
• Winter (Dec/Jan/Feb) = 23%
• Spring (Mar/Apr/May) = 25%

Primary fire analysis volume trend over last five financial years: there may be a slight downward trend in these numbers.
Secondary fire analysis for hour of day: in contrast to primary fires this has a clearer single peak around 5pm to 6pm. The highs and lows are generally more distinct than with primary fires, suggesting that there is a greater correlation between secondary fires and when most people tend to be actively out and about.

Secondary fire analysis for day of week: there is no big variation in incident numbers between different days of the week. The highest number occurred on a Saturday (17% of incidents), with Thursday having the lowest number (13% of incidents).
Secondary fire analysis for month of year: there is a stronger seasonal variation than for primary fires. There are twin peaks in April (13%) and July (14%). The month with the lowest number of incidents is December (4%). The seasonal distribution is as follows

• Summer (Jun/Jul/Aug) = 39%
• Autumn (Sept/Oct/Nov) = 17%
• Winter (Dec/Jan/Feb) = 13%
• Spring (Mar/Apr/May) = 31%

Secondary fire analysis volume trend over last five financial years: there is no clear trend showing in these numbers.

Non-fire incidents

Non-fire incidents cover all the other situations that the Service is asked to attend to offer special services. There are 21 categories of non-fire incidents. The five most commonly occurring in 2023/24 were

• Road Traffic Collisions – 26%
• Effecting entry / exit – 21%
• Assist other agencies – 13%
• Flooding – 9% Lift release – 5%

Non fire analysis for hour of day: this is very similar to the distribution for all incidents. The only difference is that the downturn occurs at an earlier time between 5pm and 6pm. Road traffic collisions have an initial peak at the start of the typical commuting period at around 8am, this then tails off for a while but begins to climb again around 3pm and has the highest peak at around 5pm (middle of the typical commuting period).

Non fire analysis for day of week: there is no big variation in incident numbers between different days of the week. The highest number occurred on a Friday (15% of incidents), with Wednesday having the lowest number (14% of incidents).

Non fire analysis for month of year: there is no strong seasonal variation. The peak is in December (10%). The seasonal distribution is as follows Summer (Jun/Jul/Aug) = 25% Autumn (Sept/Oct/Nov) = 26% Winter (Dec/Jan/Feb) = 27% Spring (Mar/Apr/May) = 22%

Non fire analysis volume trend over last five financial years: there is no clear trend showing in these numbers.

Visualisations of distributions and trends – fire false alarm incidents

We receive false alarms for fire incidents for three main reasons

• Due to apparatus. For example, an automated signal sent by a fire alarm system (70% in 2023/24)
• Good intent. For or example, the caller believed in the probability of an uncontrolled fire (29% in 2023/24)
• Malicious. For example, the caller did not believe in the probability of an uncontrolled fire (1% in 2023/24)

False alarm analysis for hour of day: this is very similar to the distribution for all incidents.

False alarm analysis for day of week: there is no big variation in incident numbers between different days of the week. The highest number occurred on a Wednesday (15% of incidents), with Sundays having the lowest number (14% of incidents).

False alarm analysis for month of year: there is weaker seasonal variation compared to all incidents. There is a peak in September (10%). The month with the lowest number of incidents is February (7%). The seasonal distribution is as follows

• Summer (Jun/Jul/Aug) = 28%
• Autumn (Sept/Oct/Nov) = 27%
• Winter (Dec/Jan/Feb) = 23%
• Spring (Mar/Apr/May) = 23%

False alarm analysis volume trend over last five financial years: there is downward trend showing in these numbers. The COVID-19 pandemic impact during 2020/21 appears to have had a downward impact on these incidents, but it is not clear why.

Conclusion

The time of day rather than the day of the week is more significant in helping us predict when our services might be needed. Almost twice as many incidents occur between the hours of 7am and 7pm as occur between 7pm and 7am (1.7 times the number). Time of year does not have a major influence on incident numbers, but slightly more incidents occur in the summer months.
Longer term trends

The analysis carried out in this section show different types of incidents attended over time, some from 2002 where available and others from 2010. It shows the volume of these incidents that have occurred from every 10,000 people who live in Surrey.
In total the numbers over the last 14 years have not varied much, although in the previous 7 years before there was a noticeable decline in most incident types. The exception to this is non fire incidents which saw a distinct peak in the period between 2016 to 2018. This is known to be because of a pilot scheme in that period where the service was acting as first responders for the Surrey Ambulance Service for certain categories of medical calls.

Overall Conclusion

As a Fire and Rescue Service, we want to do all we can to prevent unnecessary loss of life. The greatest threat to life comes from the roads, bodies of water and from domestic dwelling fires. The number of road traffic collisions (RTCs) has been declining in the last few years and those that do occur tend to be on the motorways and A roads in the north-west of Surrey. In the five years between 2018 and 2022, the average number of deaths caused by RTCs each year was 28. Drivers under the age of 25 are at greater risk of being injured in a road traffic collision than drivers in other age groups.

There are fewer water-related incidents than there are fire incidents, but the number of fatalities is about the same. For the nine years between 2010 and 2018, the average number of deaths caused by fire or by water for each of those years was 3. The presence of smoke alarms reduces the extent of fire damage and improves the likelihood of self-rescue. Research and our own experience have shown that some residents are more likely to experience a fire and to be more affected by it. These are older residents and residents with physical or mental health issues, alcohol or drug dependency, residents who smoke and residents who live alone.

The number of more vulnerable residents is expected to grow as the population ages. We can use data from different sources and apply modelling techniques to identify where more vulnerable residents live. Certain types of commercial premises are more vulnerable to fire, and we have found that newer businesses and those with lower compliance rates are at greater risk of fire. The design of some of the older heritage properties in Surrey increases the likelihood of fire spreading rapidly. The impact of major incidents on national infrastructure such as motorways, rail network and airports would be severe. We liaise with other agencies via the Local Resilience Forum to maintain our awareness of the likelihood, impact and potential location of major incidents.

Protecting the environment is a key part of our responsibilities. Surrey has approximately 64,000 households at risk of fluvial flooding and 15,500 hectares of land at risk of wildfire. The weather is a big factor in causing the right conditions for flooding and wildfire incidents to occur. The effects of climate change may create these conditions more frequently in future.

Appendices

Appendix 1 – data sources

People

Places

Premises

Broader risks

When do incidents occur?

Appendix 2 - Surrey Fire and Rescue Service fire stations

Acknowledgements

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